The UK General Election

Of course in 2 weeks we have a great test of all predictions, however arrived at.

At the bottom of this blog is a summary of opinion polls and betting odds, which are 2 ways of predicting. The opinion polls suggest that no party will have an overall majority, and that it'll up to the politicians to form a coalition. Of course opinion polls change by the day.The betting odds say much the same thing -- the shortest odds by far is on no overall majority.

Its interesting to see how many astrologers are prepared to stick their necks out and make a clear prediction. Here are some:

"Gordon Brown will defeat David Cameron in this year’s General Election" in http://astrotabletalk.blogspot.com/2010/03/why-gordon-brown-will-beat-david.html

http://http//www.journalofastrology.com/article.php?article_id=285

"The next government is a Lib-Con coalition". This is a very interesting forum in a which a number of views are expressed, of which this is the most common. One of the posters suggest that PM Cameron will call an early election this summer! http://www.skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=5267&start=15&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=&sid=69cdb2d7041a2cb0db7aedcf05955bc0

"David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister of Great Britain". http://blairrobertson.com/blog/blair-robertson-predictions-next-british-prime-minister-maple-syrup-and-republicans-advance/

"Gordon Brown – cheerio. David Cameron – could do well, although it will be a difficult time for him. Nick Clegg – will come out of this election very well. Probable result: in the statistically unlikely event of a hung parliament, there will be a Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition – this will see Clegg rewarded with a senior Cabinet post." http://solascendans.com/2010/04/06/alex-general-election-2010-forecast/

An admittedly unscientific sampling reflects the same view as the polls -- a hung parliament and then a Lib - Con coalition. Since the polls will chane over the next weeks but the stars won't, it'll be interesting to see how clever these forecasts look in 2 weeks.

It might also be interesting to note the poor results of trying to predict the previous General Election: www.strudel.org.uk/blog/astro/000224.shtml

Small things and large

Last Saturday I got a call from a credit card company because I hadn't paid them. Most unlike me. We'd had some friends stay over the previous weekend and they stayed in the room that is normally my office; we had tidied it up and not moved everything back yet. The Credit Card statement was in a pile of papers that had been moved . . . you get the picture.

My prediction for that day:

After the past few busy weeks, your filing system has totally fallen apart. Are you sick of hunting around for files, losing important emails and missing meetings? It's the perfect day to get reorganized and back on track.

Spot on. I guess it also shows that not all predictions, whether true or false, are about very important matters (this was not a large amount and easily paid).

Career developments in the week starting 15th March

I've waited a fortnight before starting to write this post as I wanted to let the dust settle a little.

Ever since the previous post on falsifiability I've checked the horoscopes I follow for another unambigious prediction. While this is just a bit of fun (for me anyway), I suppose doing it even half properly means I have to test all predictions of my chosen subset of forecasts.

Here is how the week of the 15th stacked up from a career point of view (predictions from different astrologers):

1. Unexpected developments in general:

During this eventful week you''ll be dealing with frequent, exciting and often unexpected developments and, occasionally, pressing decisions.

2. Good career developments in that week

You have that critical new moon on March 15, so circle it on your calendar - it's your red letter day. From then on, you'll start to see career opportunities fall from the sky, as if you had poked a pinata.
. . .
The moon is the natural ruler of your solar second house of income, so with the new moon ensuring you a high profile position, you will get a chance to make a profit from a career promotion, new job offer or special assignment, or speaking engagement. This will occur in the second half of March, after the new moon appears, March 15. Your dividends will accrue from the career reputation you have already built.

3. Unexpected development on 17th March (probably good but might be bad)

On March 17, a Wednesday, the Sun will conjoin Uranus and again news will come out of the blue. Hopefully it will be really good news, but even if it isn't (that would only happen if there are things in your chart I can't see from here), the news will work to protect you. Still, I think news will make you happy because you have Jupiter in your career house protecting you so fiercely.

For the 2 Gemini in the sample (one born in each hemisphere) this happened to be an important career week. Gemini A went for a job interview on the 17th March and didn't get the job. Gemini B was, quite out of the blue, told on the 17th March that he was no longer required.

So the predictions score:
1 - true for B. Not clear that it has meaning for A, or at least not in the context of jobs (there might have been other exciting and unexpected developments.
2 - not true for either. Today ends the second half of March and it hasn't [so far] brought anything good in the career line.
3 - true for B in the sense that there was unexpected career news, but wrong on the [qualified] statement that it would be good.

The interpretation is harder. I would think that (1) might have struck a lucky hit with a very general prediction that applied to one life and not another, and could probably be made to fit many people most weeks. (2) and (3) are harder to interpret, not least because they come from the same astrologer, who clearly picked the importance of career that week and day but mistook it for good news, with just a tiny qualification.

You can perhaps see why I had to ponder it for 2 weeks.

So what happened on Thursday and last week?

The post below indicates that last week was supposed to be a big deal for me. Two predictions rose above the all-too-frequent vagueness that characterises horoscopes. Lets see how they turned out:

You should find that things have changed in a big way by the end of the day -- most likely for the better! Your energy is definitely in sync with the rest of the world, so keep on pushing

Partly true. There was a good and expected development on Thursday, as I finished a review of a black hole in my business and found more profit. At about 6% of the annual profit target it was welcome but not a massive deal. Perhaps a better argument for the prediction is that the development below was called correctly but the timing was a little wrong, as it happened even before Thursday started in New Zealand, where all days start.

The other forecast was about the whole week:

It’s unclear whether it’s your own idea, something you overheard or an offer. Or all of these. What is sure is that Monday’s encounter between your ruler Mercury and the expansive Jupiter brings life-changing events. Knowing that, show interest in absolutely everything, knowing plans can be slimmed down later. Similarly, when certain well-meaning individuals advise caution, smile enigmatically and ignore them. If ever there was a time to take chances, it’s now.

There are lots of big things in the air of my life, as there are probably in everybody's. But on Tuesday night I had news of a life changing event I don't feel like describing here yet -- just take my word for it.

A good week for the forecasters but not a conclusion -- one data point proves nothing. Lets keep looking.

Falsifiable Thursday

Here is a very clear prediction from astrology.com for me for Thursday:

You should find that things have changed in a big way by the end of the day -- most likely for the better! Your energy is definitely in sync with the rest of the world, so keep on pushing.

I don't quite know when their Thursday is -- if the forecast is meant to cover the USA then it extends 8 hours into what we in the UK would call Friday. But in any case I'll be checking by Friday lunchtime whether things have changed a lot (and hopefully for the better!)

This might be a good test of predictions, as the theme of big change for Gemini is also on other forecasts -- here is what Shelly von Strunckel says about this week:

It’s unclear whether it’s your own idea, something you overheard or an offer. Or all of these. What is sure is that Monday’s encounter between your ruler Mercury and the expansive Jupiter brings life-changing events. Knowing that, show interest in absolutely everything, knowing plans can be slimmed down later. Similarly, when certain well-meaning individuals advise caution, smile enigmatically and ignore them. If ever there was a time to take chances, it’s now.

Falsifiability and horoscopes

It is surprising how seldom a horoscope prediction is falsifiable i.e. it can be proved wrong. When we have a falsifiable prediction, and its proved right or proved wrong, does it say something about the predictive value of horoscopes? I think so.

Here is a current example. Last Saturday Catherine Tennant made the following prediction for Gemini for this week:

Neptune, the planet that rules intuition and imagination, helps you focus on a new ambition this weekend. There is more than one route to your goal, so do not let existing ties or work commitments limit your horizons. Someone you spend time with now is also due to help you see your situation from a more optimistic perspective.

The first sentence -- well I tried to focus on my golf game, so it might be true. Anyone with a heartbeat probably tried to focus on something last weekend so its probably true for everyone in some way, and how would you disprove it? So also the second sentence.

But the third could clearly be true or false. As it happens, this is definitely true for me -- I'm going through a rough patch at the moment and appreciate the support of a friend who is a real tonic, helping me to see things in an optimistic light. This doesn't happen every week so might well have been untrue at another time, or for another person.

I'll be looking for more statements to test.

Does the world need another blog?

For years now I have been following horoscopes. Every time I decide they have no predictive powers, I am astonished by an accurate prediction. Perhaps this is a place where information about horoscopes can be put discussed, with links to the better ones.

In general, the various systems of horoscope imply that the facts of our birth (place, date, time) have a bearing on what will happen in our lives. Here is one scientific perspective on such causation:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2007/apr/22/healthandwellbeing.lifeandhealth

Of course, just to say that there is a link between when you're born and what you grow up to be, doesn't mean that a given astrologer's method is correct!