Friday 19 February 2010

Falsifiability and horoscopes

It is surprising how seldom a horoscope prediction is falsifiable i.e. it can be proved wrong. When we have a falsifiable prediction, and its proved right or proved wrong, does it say something about the predictive value of horoscopes? I think so.

Here is a current example. Last Saturday Catherine Tennant made the following prediction for Gemini for this week:

Neptune, the planet that rules intuition and imagination, helps you focus on a new ambition this weekend. There is more than one route to your goal, so do not let existing ties or work commitments limit your horizons. Someone you spend time with now is also due to help you see your situation from a more optimistic perspective.

The first sentence -- well I tried to focus on my golf game, so it might be true. Anyone with a heartbeat probably tried to focus on something last weekend so its probably true for everyone in some way, and how would you disprove it? So also the second sentence.

But the third could clearly be true or false. As it happens, this is definitely true for me -- I'm going through a rough patch at the moment and appreciate the support of a friend who is a real tonic, helping me to see things in an optimistic light. This doesn't happen every week so might well have been untrue at another time, or for another person.

I'll be looking for more statements to test.

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