Chinese forecast for 2011

Wow! Two posts on one day. But I just found this forecast and it looks very interesting:

http://www.moonslipper.com/chinese.html

Brave astrologer

How about this for sticking your neck out:

Happy New Year - and a slightly different forecast for this first day of 2011. Every sign has a ruling planet (yours is Mercury). The days when the Sun makes a special aspect to this planet are worth ringing in your diary. They are likely to be significant, action-packed days for those of your sign. So, ring the following dates on your calendar or diary and at the end of the year let's see what happened. Your dates are : Jan 10th, Feb 25th, March 1 and 13, April 9 and 12, June 9, 12 and 28, August 17 and 22, September 26 and 28, Oct 2, Dec 2 and 4

I'll track these and give him a score at the end of the year.

Property

"And, of course, there's also the issue of property and where and how you'd like to live"

And then out of the blue someone wants to come and look at the house that has been for sale since August with very little interest shown in it. Is this again a matter of identifying an area of interest correctly (note no qualifiers in the sentence)?

Love in October

You will be meditating about your romantic life too this month, just after the new moon, October 7. . . . Your down-to-business determination in regard to streamlining your love life (thanks to the influence of Saturn) could now work to your advantage. The new moon October 7, conjunct Saturn, could help you find and create a strong, fulfilling, deep, and enduring relationship.

Its too soon to say whether its enduring (although I hope so), but the rest is correct. In particular the "down-to-business" part -- we've approached matters that way.

It seems that a good astrologer can, surprisingly often, pick the subject that will feature and then picks a possible event in that subject area, that

- might be true;

- might have come true if I don't do something to prevent it;

- was just plan wrong.

One hit, one 50

On Monday I was unexpectedly asked to take a lead in some business discussions, and my comments were received very well; so much so that I got a 2 month contract extension. Here was the forecast for this week:

At some point this week you may be asked to make a presentation: at the very least say a few words in public. Don't doubt your abilities! You could make considerable impact.

But then last week there was a quite definite prediction that was at best semi correct. There is a lot of talking about sorting out some domestic issues, in the course of which I'm often accused of being hurtful and provocative, but my career and domestic circumstances wasn't rocked.

Let's face it. You enjoy words and the effect they have. But you're probably not naturally cruel and may be mortified if you've hurt someone. Be prepared to be accused. At least one person thinks you've been downright provocative. Get ready too for your career and domestic circumstances to be rocked by news that someone's going off in another direction - and won't be stopped.

Solo day

Not a big deal but absolutely spot on. Also, not hedged about with maybe's and possibly's (which would have lead me to ignore it):

You won't be getting along so well with peers or even clients right now, so do your best to concentrate on solo projects and let them all just drive each other crazy for a change. When the dust clears, you'll be squeaky clean!

I certainly didn't get on with them, and I got work done working on my own (from home, as it happened).

Healthy living

I hadn't looked at this astrologer for a few days so was astonished when I looked up the prediction for the week that had started last Friday:

The Sun changes signs this weekend too - throwing the spotlight on your tendency to burn the candle at both ends and, perhaps, not look after yourself well enough. Someone who clearly does that and is almost fetishist about eating and living well could be your best guide. Actually, it's possible they're already so attracted to you that they'll draw you into their circle

I'm in a new relationship; she really does the healthy living thing well and was coaching me on making sure I take more time off.

Well, well. Bull's eye hit I'd say.

Career October 2010 - updated and posted 5th March 2011

I've just discovered forecasts that I made in October, and set aside to see if they come up trumps or not. Here they were:

Extracts from forecast 1:

Your career will be on fire this month, too. A source of income may show up or change on October 12 due to the Sun moving over a mathematical degree of the eclipse of last July 11. October 20 should be fantastically exciting too, for Mars will reach out to Jupiter in your house of fame, and you may get a shot of publicity or a wonderful offer that proves to be quite prestigious. More happy career surprises are due over October 22-25 - news will come out of the blue and light you up brilliantly! Apparently you will have that certain something that everyone is clamoring to get - expertise, goods, or services. This is not the month to hide in your apartment!

Forecast 2:

Your ruler shifts into the hardest-working angle of your chart on Thursday. Maybe not thrilling news, but certainly useful. Over the next three weeks you'll see huge progress in your career

What happened? In the last week of October I got a 3 month consulting engagement, that led (so far) so a further month's consulting. So not huge career development nor (yet) the start of something massive, but definite improvement in my professional life.

Spot on

"October 3 is due to be a banner day for love."

Absolutely right. Big banner day.

If we bear in mind that this big banner day has, in retrospect, been building up for a month, this makes the prediction look good that August and September would be great months for romance (see below).

Here is another astrologer's forecast of the same weekend, also correct:

. . . at least one person is likely to be charmed by you - and your ability to relate to a situation they're presently coping with. It's possible that this is a long term friendship in the making.

However the "family snarl" hasn't been sorted out (see 2 below) so must be counted a miss.

Stepping on toes

Even though you like a lively exchange of ideas, you're encouraged to be as restrained as possible. At least for the moment. Certain individuals feel far more strongly about their ventures than you realise. What you regard as merely a humorous remark could hit home, if not actually be hurtful.

Absolutely spot on for my 9.30 am meeting this morning. Perhaps I should have listened more acutely too.

Sorting out a family snarl?

So here we are, waiting for the legal process to divorce us and for the property market to sell the family home. The forecase for this week seems very relevant:

Any family snarl-ups should start to sort themselves out, to everyone’s satisfaction, as Mercury, your ruler, strides forwards in the domestic angle of your chart. This is especially true if some sort of property deal is involved.

Its not quite a definite prediction, and it might refer to other "family snarls" perhaps so there might be different ways in which it could be correct. Lets see.

The value of being correct sometimes

I have been looking at horoscopes for a long time, and some of the results are in this blog. It seems to me that:

- horoscope predictions are right more often than can be explained by pure chance;
- horoscope predictions are right less than 50% of the time;
- there is a little consistency between astrologers. This doesn't mean astrology is rubbish, or at least no more than some people making better food than others means that cookery is rubbish.

You might not agree, but this is my opinion based on careful observation and thinking. Anyway, this is my blog.

The question then is "so what"?

First, a digression. Lets say that I had a way of predicting with 25% accuracy which horse would win a race in which (say) 12 horses start. If I chose a horse at random I have a 1/12 = 8% chance of being correct; so this prediction is much better than random but still a long way short of 50/50. Of course there are many non-random ways of choosing a winner, of which I might adopt some if I knew anything about horses. BTW the existence of other methods of prediction might or might not be beside the point -- see later.

In such a case the logical thing would be to back the predicted winner if the odds compensate you for the 75% probability that it would lose. But if you could know which outsiders had a 25% chance of winning, then over a period of time you should do well.

So how do we apply this to life? Some thoughts:

- You'd be silly to wager on a binary bet based on a astrological prediction unless the odds are very good. Perhaps this is why hardly anybody predicted the World Cup outcome successfully?

- If you've tracked the accuracy of a specific forecaster for a while, leave the door open to their forecasts being correct.

- Think about other ways of predicting the event in question that might give you a better or worse feeling of likelihood.

Some more thoughts in time.

Divorce foretold

On the 14th March I referred to a forecast that something big would happen the previous week:

What is sure is that Monday’s encounter between your ruler Mercury and the expansive Jupiter brings life-changing events.

I said then that it had been correct, although I didn't feel like spelling out the detail. What happened was that we out to dinner (to ensure good behaviour, as we are very well behaved in public places), and agreed that the 18-month process to prolong our marriage was over, and that we would seek a divorce.

The prediction was very emphatic and it was correct.

Here is another predictions that I read as having a bearing on this matter and that turned out correctly:

26th June to 2nd July: A long-term partnership or deep emotional commitment comes up for review this week, when the Moon’s eclipse in Capricorn could make you see the situation, and your options, in a new light.

That is when we made the appointment to see the mediator to help us work through the divorce on an uncontested basis.

There are others, particularly dealing with money luck, but I don't feel like exposing too much of my personal life on here.

I hope the following will be true too: Love has been erratic for you, but with Mars about to light your true love sector on July 29 until September 14, you'll start a two-month period where romance will be fun to find.

Inverse correctness

I have referred before to a prediction that was right in the area of my life that would see activity (career in that case) but 180 degrees out on the impact. I don't think this can be written off as spurious; the astrologer might equally have made a prediction about my health or about tall dark strangers, which didn't feature.

In June we had another example from the same astrologer: she predicted that

"The full moon lunar eclipse due on June 26 will bring a surprising and possibly even jarring situation to a head involving a certain financial matter. This will be a tough moment, because many planets will be fighting with one another in ways we have rarely seen. Everyone, of every sign, will notice tension in the air. "

Instead, what happened is that the company I had left in April advised me that they were paying out my bonus, which is quite a lot of money. So again: right date, right subject, wrong on the direction of the impact.

It is worth knowing that a certain area is due to be impacted; I'll have to track her specific predictions to see if she is always out by 180 degrees or if its just a case of being able to identify area and impact but not direction.

Then again, she predicted that in early June I would get a career boost from the intervention of my friends, especially if I was in some lines of business (one of which I am). That certainly hit true

UK General Election -- wrap-up

I thought I would give it a few weeks and then try to assess the election.

1. Here was an event that would have a well-defined outcome, and therefore provided a good test of predictions.

2. Astrologers' predictions seemed to be all over the show. Many were accurate and many were wrong.

3. One obvious conclusion is that astrology is not repeatable, i.e. not all astrologers will get to the same prediction. This doesn't mean that astrological predictions are worthless (although they might be), but at best it means that astrology is at a partly formalised stage where outputs are highly dependent on the practitioner -- perhaps where medicine was in the Middle Ages? I don't think this is just a matter of experience, otherwise senior members of the associations would get better results than they appear to.

I am still intrigued by the number of cases where a prediction identifies an area in which something will happen, without necessarily getting the exact prediction right.

In the mean time its interesting that we're not seeing much by way of predictions for sporting events such as the football World Cup -- perhaps the people who know what will happen are keeping their predictions to themselves and betting on the outcome? But if they did, it would move the odds, which would be visible for all to see.

UK General Election -- update

I found an article by the president of the Astrological Association of GB on the election. I must admit that the amount of on-the-one-hand-but-on-the-other was surprising. I feel that if such a clearly defined event can't call forth an uncommitted prediction, what chance is there of a believable prediction for a sign at random, i.e. one twelfth of humanity? However, for what its worth:

- Gordon Brown will work hard, and his plight will engender sympathy. However time for his ideas is running out, and he has to pay for "colluding in the cavalier and arrogant mistakes of his predecessor".

- David Cameron won't be able to avoid the burden of leadership of the country. Then again, to me he doesn't seem to be trying to avoid it.

- As for Nick Clegg, "campaigning effectiveness is certainly pronounced".

The UK General Election

Of course in 2 weeks we have a great test of all predictions, however arrived at.

At the bottom of this blog is a summary of opinion polls and betting odds, which are 2 ways of predicting. The opinion polls suggest that no party will have an overall majority, and that it'll up to the politicians to form a coalition. Of course opinion polls change by the day.The betting odds say much the same thing -- the shortest odds by far is on no overall majority.

Its interesting to see how many astrologers are prepared to stick their necks out and make a clear prediction. Here are some:

"Gordon Brown will defeat David Cameron in this year’s General Election" in http://astrotabletalk.blogspot.com/2010/03/why-gordon-brown-will-beat-david.html

http://http//www.journalofastrology.com/article.php?article_id=285

"The next government is a Lib-Con coalition". This is a very interesting forum in a which a number of views are expressed, of which this is the most common. One of the posters suggest that PM Cameron will call an early election this summer! http://www.skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=5267&start=15&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=&sid=69cdb2d7041a2cb0db7aedcf05955bc0

"David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister of Great Britain". http://blairrobertson.com/blog/blair-robertson-predictions-next-british-prime-minister-maple-syrup-and-republicans-advance/

"Gordon Brown – cheerio. David Cameron – could do well, although it will be a difficult time for him. Nick Clegg – will come out of this election very well. Probable result: in the statistically unlikely event of a hung parliament, there will be a Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition – this will see Clegg rewarded with a senior Cabinet post." http://solascendans.com/2010/04/06/alex-general-election-2010-forecast/

An admittedly unscientific sampling reflects the same view as the polls -- a hung parliament and then a Lib - Con coalition. Since the polls will chane over the next weeks but the stars won't, it'll be interesting to see how clever these forecasts look in 2 weeks.

It might also be interesting to note the poor results of trying to predict the previous General Election: www.strudel.org.uk/blog/astro/000224.shtml

Small things and large

Last Saturday I got a call from a credit card company because I hadn't paid them. Most unlike me. We'd had some friends stay over the previous weekend and they stayed in the room that is normally my office; we had tidied it up and not moved everything back yet. The Credit Card statement was in a pile of papers that had been moved . . . you get the picture.

My prediction for that day:

After the past few busy weeks, your filing system has totally fallen apart. Are you sick of hunting around for files, losing important emails and missing meetings? It's the perfect day to get reorganized and back on track.

Spot on. I guess it also shows that not all predictions, whether true or false, are about very important matters (this was not a large amount and easily paid).

Career developments in the week starting 15th March

I've waited a fortnight before starting to write this post as I wanted to let the dust settle a little.

Ever since the previous post on falsifiability I've checked the horoscopes I follow for another unambigious prediction. While this is just a bit of fun (for me anyway), I suppose doing it even half properly means I have to test all predictions of my chosen subset of forecasts.

Here is how the week of the 15th stacked up from a career point of view (predictions from different astrologers):

1. Unexpected developments in general:

During this eventful week you''ll be dealing with frequent, exciting and often unexpected developments and, occasionally, pressing decisions.

2. Good career developments in that week

You have that critical new moon on March 15, so circle it on your calendar - it's your red letter day. From then on, you'll start to see career opportunities fall from the sky, as if you had poked a pinata.
. . .
The moon is the natural ruler of your solar second house of income, so with the new moon ensuring you a high profile position, you will get a chance to make a profit from a career promotion, new job offer or special assignment, or speaking engagement. This will occur in the second half of March, after the new moon appears, March 15. Your dividends will accrue from the career reputation you have already built.

3. Unexpected development on 17th March (probably good but might be bad)

On March 17, a Wednesday, the Sun will conjoin Uranus and again news will come out of the blue. Hopefully it will be really good news, but even if it isn't (that would only happen if there are things in your chart I can't see from here), the news will work to protect you. Still, I think news will make you happy because you have Jupiter in your career house protecting you so fiercely.

For the 2 Gemini in the sample (one born in each hemisphere) this happened to be an important career week. Gemini A went for a job interview on the 17th March and didn't get the job. Gemini B was, quite out of the blue, told on the 17th March that he was no longer required.

So the predictions score:
1 - true for B. Not clear that it has meaning for A, or at least not in the context of jobs (there might have been other exciting and unexpected developments.
2 - not true for either. Today ends the second half of March and it hasn't [so far] brought anything good in the career line.
3 - true for B in the sense that there was unexpected career news, but wrong on the [qualified] statement that it would be good.

The interpretation is harder. I would think that (1) might have struck a lucky hit with a very general prediction that applied to one life and not another, and could probably be made to fit many people most weeks. (2) and (3) are harder to interpret, not least because they come from the same astrologer, who clearly picked the importance of career that week and day but mistook it for good news, with just a tiny qualification.

You can perhaps see why I had to ponder it for 2 weeks.

So what happened on Thursday and last week?

The post below indicates that last week was supposed to be a big deal for me. Two predictions rose above the all-too-frequent vagueness that characterises horoscopes. Lets see how they turned out:

You should find that things have changed in a big way by the end of the day -- most likely for the better! Your energy is definitely in sync with the rest of the world, so keep on pushing

Partly true. There was a good and expected development on Thursday, as I finished a review of a black hole in my business and found more profit. At about 6% of the annual profit target it was welcome but not a massive deal. Perhaps a better argument for the prediction is that the development below was called correctly but the timing was a little wrong, as it happened even before Thursday started in New Zealand, where all days start.

The other forecast was about the whole week:

It’s unclear whether it’s your own idea, something you overheard or an offer. Or all of these. What is sure is that Monday’s encounter between your ruler Mercury and the expansive Jupiter brings life-changing events. Knowing that, show interest in absolutely everything, knowing plans can be slimmed down later. Similarly, when certain well-meaning individuals advise caution, smile enigmatically and ignore them. If ever there was a time to take chances, it’s now.

There are lots of big things in the air of my life, as there are probably in everybody's. But on Tuesday night I had news of a life changing event I don't feel like describing here yet -- just take my word for it.

A good week for the forecasters but not a conclusion -- one data point proves nothing. Lets keep looking.

Falsifiable Thursday

Here is a very clear prediction from astrology.com for me for Thursday:

You should find that things have changed in a big way by the end of the day -- most likely for the better! Your energy is definitely in sync with the rest of the world, so keep on pushing.

I don't quite know when their Thursday is -- if the forecast is meant to cover the USA then it extends 8 hours into what we in the UK would call Friday. But in any case I'll be checking by Friday lunchtime whether things have changed a lot (and hopefully for the better!)

This might be a good test of predictions, as the theme of big change for Gemini is also on other forecasts -- here is what Shelly von Strunckel says about this week:

It’s unclear whether it’s your own idea, something you overheard or an offer. Or all of these. What is sure is that Monday’s encounter between your ruler Mercury and the expansive Jupiter brings life-changing events. Knowing that, show interest in absolutely everything, knowing plans can be slimmed down later. Similarly, when certain well-meaning individuals advise caution, smile enigmatically and ignore them. If ever there was a time to take chances, it’s now.

Falsifiability and horoscopes

It is surprising how seldom a horoscope prediction is falsifiable i.e. it can be proved wrong. When we have a falsifiable prediction, and its proved right or proved wrong, does it say something about the predictive value of horoscopes? I think so.

Here is a current example. Last Saturday Catherine Tennant made the following prediction for Gemini for this week:

Neptune, the planet that rules intuition and imagination, helps you focus on a new ambition this weekend. There is more than one route to your goal, so do not let existing ties or work commitments limit your horizons. Someone you spend time with now is also due to help you see your situation from a more optimistic perspective.

The first sentence -- well I tried to focus on my golf game, so it might be true. Anyone with a heartbeat probably tried to focus on something last weekend so its probably true for everyone in some way, and how would you disprove it? So also the second sentence.

But the third could clearly be true or false. As it happens, this is definitely true for me -- I'm going through a rough patch at the moment and appreciate the support of a friend who is a real tonic, helping me to see things in an optimistic light. This doesn't happen every week so might well have been untrue at another time, or for another person.

I'll be looking for more statements to test.

Does the world need another blog?

For years now I have been following horoscopes. Every time I decide they have no predictive powers, I am astonished by an accurate prediction. Perhaps this is a place where information about horoscopes can be put discussed, with links to the better ones.

In general, the various systems of horoscope imply that the facts of our birth (place, date, time) have a bearing on what will happen in our lives. Here is one scientific perspective on such causation:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2007/apr/22/healthandwellbeing.lifeandhealth

Of course, just to say that there is a link between when you're born and what you grow up to be, doesn't mean that a given astrologer's method is correct!